Toyota is betting more of its hydrogen ambitions on commercial vehicles, using fleet operations to ease the challenge of building a hydrogen supply network, even as battery-electric heavy trucks keep cutting costs and charging times. The Japanese automaker laid out its latest European hydrogen plans at the IAA Transportation 2026 show in Hanover, Germany, according to Chinese outlet Huxiu.
Toyota will supply its third-generation fuel-cell system for 40 Scania heavy vehicles in real-world operating tests, and is working with Iveco under the EU-funded EMPOWER project to develop a next-generation fuel-cell heavy truck. The company also plans a hydrogen fuel-cell version of its Hilux pickup in 2028, targeting a range of more than 400 km and a towing capacity of up to 2.5 tonnes. In July 2026, Toyota, Volvo Group, Daimler Truck and cellcentric signed a binding agreement for Toyota to join cellcentric, with each automaker holding one-third of the fuel-cell joint venture, pending regulatory approval.
From carmaker to system supplier
The shift marks a change from Toyota's earlier approach. When it launched the Mirai sedan in 2014, Toyota hoped passenger cars would open up the hydrogen market. More than a decade later, the vehicles are in production, but limited refuelling convenience and high purchase and fuel costs have kept the market small. Hydrogen cars face a chicken-and-egg problem: few vehicles make stations unprofitable, and few stations discourage buyers.
Fleet procurement offers different conditions. Defined vehicle numbers, routes and hydrogen usage let energy companies forecast demand, and stations can be built around logistics bases and transport corridors rather than requiring broad coverage from the start. Toyota's move toward supplying core systems to other truck makers extends a route it began in 2019, when Portuguese firm CaetanoBus adopted Toyota fuel-cell technology for hydrogen buses. In 2021, Toyota announced modular fuel-cell systems for different products and applications.
By partnering with European truck makers, Toyota can use their vehicle development, customer channels and service networks to expand its fuel-cell business without building its own heavy-truck lineup. If its systems are adopted across more models, research and manufacturing costs can be spread over larger volumes. But being a system supplier has its own hurdles: different vehicles need adaptation, and customers vary in their reliability and maintenance requirements.
Cost gap persists
For transport operators, the key economic measure is total cost of ownership (TCO), covering purchase and financing, energy, maintenance, insurance, taxes and residual value. Studies so far do not show hydrogen fuel-cell trucks have a general cost advantage. The International Council on Clean Transportation's 2023 European truck TCO study projected fuel-cell trucks would remain about 10% to 20% more expensive than battery-electric trucks over the long term under its assumptions, and that long-haul fuel-cell trucks would struggle to reach TCO parity with diesel before 2035 given expected green hydrogen prices.
The International Energy Agency's Global EV Outlook 2025, using assumptions including 500 km of daily driving, also found fuel-cell heavy trucks would still cost more than battery-electric trucks by 2030 in China, the EU and the US. These are model projections, not achieved operating results, but they set a clear requirement: fuel-cell trucks need simultaneous improvements in vehicle cost, hydrogen supply and facility utilisation to close the gap.
Charging speed, once a selling point for hydrogen, is also facing new competition. Scania says megawatt charging systems (MCS) can take a battery from 20% to 80% in under 30 minutes under suitable conditions. While such service is not yet available on all routes, the refuelling speed of battery-electric trucks is changing. Fleets care about how much extra operating time refuelling takes - if charging overlaps with driver rest, loading or parking, the actual lost transport time may be less than the charging duration.
The more realistic starting point for hydrogen commercialisation may be specific transport corridors with stable customers, long-term hydrogen supply contracts and acceptable TCO. Only if those projects keep running can network expansion build a reliable demand base. For Toyota, the indicators worth watching should shift from the number of partnerships to operating performance: vehicle availability, actual energy costs, facility uptime and follow-on orders after trials end. Battery-electric trucks will not wait for hydrogen to cut costs, and Toyota needs to show its European partnerships can produce customers willing to keep buying without repeated demonstration-project support.
