As China's EV market matures, global auto suppliers are making bold bets on internal combustion engines (ICE), a technology many had written off. In September 2026, Tenneco opened its global innovation center in Kunshan, Jiangsu province, dedicated to powertrain, Champion spark plugs, and air purification—all closely tied to ICE. The company, which already has mass-produced battery thermal safety and intelligent suspension products, is doubling down on combustion technology, according to Chinese outlet D1EV.
Regional and use-case disparities
The pace of electrification varies widely by region and vehicle type. Xu Jie, president of Mann+Hummel's global passenger vehicle business and China, estimates that by 2030, new energy vehicles (NEVs) will account for only about 10% of US sales, 20-30% in Europe, and around 40% globally, with pure battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) making up just over 20%. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by 2030, EVs (including plug-in hybrids, or PHEVs) will exceed 40% of global new car sales, with China at about 80% and Europe near 60%.
In commercial vehicles, the shift is uneven. Short-haul scenarios like ports, mines, and urban delivery are electrifying quickly—some operators report NEV penetration as high as 70%. However, national data shows new energy heavy trucks accounted for about 28.9% of sales in 2025, with cumulative sales of 337,000 units from January 2025 to May 2026, per the Ministry of Transport. The government's 11-department plan targets 40% by 2030, but that still leaves 60% of new heavy trucks and the existing fleet of 8.6 million units relying on combustion or hybrid powertrains.
Nathan Bowen, president of Tenneco's air purification, powertrain, and spark plug group, stressed that ICE will remain essential in long-haul freight, off-road machinery, and backup power for data centers. Bosch, at the 2026 IAA Commercial Vehicles show, forecast that heavy truck production (over 6 tons) will grow to 3.3 million units in 2026 and 4 million by 2035, with only about a quarter of new registrations using battery or fuel cell power by 2030, rising to half by 2035. The rest will still rely on diesel, hybrids, hydrogen combustion, and alternative fuels.
Three paths for ICE evolution
ICE technology is not stagnant. Tenneco has developed a pre-chamber spark plug—the world's first such project—that improves fuel efficiency by 3-5% and is compatible with pure gasoline, mild hybrids, PHEVs, and range-extended electric vehicles (EREVs). It is slated for mass production in China by 2027, with several domestic automakers planning to adopt it. Stricter emissions standards, like China's upcoming National VII for commercial vehicles, are pushing advancements in combustion, aftertreatment, and noise, vibration, and harshness (NVH) control, raising the technology bar and unit value.
Hybridization is the most significant trend. According to the Society of Automotive Engineers of China's 2025 Technology Roadmap 3.0, by 2035, traditional fuel passenger cars will be fully hybridized, and by 2040, vehicles with combustion engines (including HEVs, PHEVs, and EREVs) will still account for about one-third of new passenger car sales. Tenneco has developed a compact exhaust system for hybrids, integrating exhaust and NVH components into a single module to save space, which debuted at the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show and will be refined in China before global rollout.
The aftermarket also provides a buffer. A typical fuel vehicle lasts over a decade, so changes in new car sales take years to affect the fleet and spare parts demand. This means traditional powertrain components will see slow decline, not sudden disappearance. Beyond vehicles, Cummins projects its data center-related revenue to grow from about $5 billion in 2026 to $9 billion by 2030, as AI computing drives demand for large backup power—another growth avenue for ICE technology.
In summary, the global ICE market is far from dead. Regional energy policies, heavy-duty applications, and aftermarket resilience justify continued investment. The engines of the future are more efficient, cleaner, and increasingly hybridized, ensuring their relevance for decades to come.
