Nio's top executives are speaking with unusual confidence. Founder and CEO William Li, president Qin Lihong, and Onvo president Shen Fei have all recently voiced the same conviction: the all-electric future is arriving, and Nio's long bet on pure battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and battery swapping is finally paying off. According to Chinese automotive outlet D1EV, this is not individual optimism but a company-wide strategic consensus.
The data supports their stance. Retail figures from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) for August 2026 show new-energy vehicle penetration reached 65.2%, with pure EVs accounting for 45.3% of all sales—the only powertrain type to grow year-on-year. Pure gasoline car sales plunged 45%, while plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and range-extenders (EREVs) also declined. In August, pure EV sales were 8.6 times those of EREVs. From January to August 2026, total passenger car retail sales fell 20.8% to 11.716 million units, and average automaker profit margins shrank to around 1.5%.
Pure electric versus the rest
Most major automakers still hedge their bets. Li Auto has shifted from EREVs to a dual strategy of EREVs and BEVs. BYD pursues both PHEVs and BEVs. Xpeng launched an EREV product in late 2025, and Xiaomi is set to introduce its "Pengcheng" EREV series in 2026. Among the top players, only Nio and Tesla remain exclusively electric.
William Li predicted in an internal speech on September 8 that new-energy penetration could exceed 70% in Q4 2026, with monthly pure EV penetration possibly surpassing 50% by year-end. By 2030, he expects 90% of new car sales to be new-energy, and 90% of those to be pure electric. Qin Lihong believes pure EVs will break 50% within about a year, saying "the EREV dividend is fading." Segment data supports this: in the large five-seat SUV segment, the pure EV to EREV sales ratio flipped from 1:23 in Q1 2025 to 8:1 in June 2026. In the large three-row SUV segment, pure EVs have outsold EREVs for 11 consecutive months.
Battery swap economics under scrutiny
Nio's other pillar is battery swapping. On August 7, the company opened its 4,000th swap station—the first fifth-generation unit—in Quanzhou, Fujian province, with initial deployments in seven cities including Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. The Firefly brand was also integrated into the swap network. Cumulative swap services surpassed 120 million, with total swapped energy reaching 6.35 billion kWh. The fifth-generation station supports wheelbases up to 3.5 meters, making it compatible with all Nio, Onvo, and Firefly models.
As of August 7, Nio had 9,166 charging and swapping facilities nationwide, including 4,006 swap stations and 5,160 charging stations. The network includes 1,049 highway swap stations, forming a "9 vertical, 11 horizontal, 16 city cluster" highway grid. Nio is also pushing "county coverage," with nine provincial regions already covered as of May 2026.
Nio argues swapping can profit from peak-valley electricity price differences. Shen Fei claims each battery can earn about 1.2 yuan per kWh in Zhejiang, yielding roughly 20,000 yuan (about $2,800) per battery annually. Swapped energy is expected to exceed 3 billion kWh this year, up from over 2 billion last year. The fifth-generation station's bare construction cost is now around one million yuan, with operating costs down about 30%. The break-even point has dropped from 60–70 swaps per day to about 45.
However, third-party data shows the national average is only about 28 swaps per station daily—well below the 45-swap threshold. Industry estimates suggest over 80% of swap stations are not yet profitable, with only core urban and highway hub stations meeting the target. Nio has acknowledged in earnings calls that swap station deployment has been loss-making, requiring subsidies from service and community businesses.
Ultra-fast charging adds pressure. With 800V architectures and 4C/5C batteries, the time gap between charging and swapping has narrowed from hours to minutes, making swapping's speed advantage less unique.
Multi-brand push and cost control
Nio's three brands now cover the 100,000 to 700,000 yuan price range. The Nio brand targets the premium market above 300,000 yuan, ranking first in the 400,000-plus segment in H1 2026, with an average selling price above 430,000 yuan in July. The new ES8 has delivered over 140,000 units in about 11 months, and the ES9 has topped the 500,000-yuan pure EV segment for three consecutive months. Onvo, aimed at the 150,000–300,000 yuan mainstream family market, averages about 240,000 yuan per sale and has nearly 200,000 deliveries in under two years. Firefly holds about 70% share in the premium small car segment.
From January to August 2026, Nio delivered 262,893 vehicles, up 57.9% year-on-year, with all three brands hitting record highs. H1 revenue reached 57.67 billion yuan (about $8.1 billion), up 85.8%, ranking third among Chinese self-owned brands in domestic sales, behind BYD and Geely.
Technologically, the ES9 launched in May 2026 features the "Cedar" intelligent system, the world's first 5nm automotive-grade smart driving chip "Shenji NX9031," and the "SkyOS" vehicle-wide operating system. The ES8 five-seat version, launched in July, uses a 900V architecture and a standard 102kWh battery. The in-house chip cuts per-vehicle smart driving hardware costs by about 10,000 yuan.
Yet R&D spending has been trimmed from about 10.6 billion yuan in 2025 to 2–2.5 billion yuan per quarter. Li insists this level is as efficient as rivals spending 3–4 billion yuan quarterly. Whether Nio's confidence is justified will depend on whether swapping economics improve and whether its brands can hold share in fiercely competitive segments.
