Wall Street has spent much of this year debating whether the AI boom has turned into a bubble, but Goldman Sachs' co-head of investment banking thinks that is the wrong question to ask. Kim Posnett, who has a front-row seat to corporate America's AI spending spree, said the more important issue is whether AI will fundamentally change how companies operate, compete and create value — and she believes the answer is clearly yes.
An 'AI investment super cycle'
According to IThome, Posnett described the current moment not as a simple bubble but as an "AI investment super cycle" that will further drive corporate spending and merger-and-acquisition activity — M&A being a core business for Goldman's investment banking division. This year, Goldman has been involved in several of the largest deals on record and secured a coveted lead role in SpaceX's record-breaking IPO.
Posnett cautioned that focusing too much on whether and when the bubble might burst could lead investors to underestimate the value AI itself can create. However, she noted that not every AI company will succeed, drawing a parallel to the internet era, which produced both enormously valuable companies and massive bubbles.
"These two things can absolutely be true at the same time. There can be bubbles within the AI ecosystem, but I don't think AI itself is a bubble, because the productivity gains from AI are too large and it can be applied across nearly the entire economy," she said.
IPO market heats up
Despite geopolitical and economic uncertainties, AI's broad applications are clearly boosting IPO and M&A activity. Earlier this year, Posnett predicted a "super cycle" for the IPO market, and the actual performance has exceeded her expectations, with large deals multiplying and listings becoming more active across industries.
According to London Stock Exchange Group data cited by IThome, global IPO volume reached $206 billion (approximately 1.39 trillion yuan) as of September 10, up 183% year-on-year. Posnett views IPO volume as an important gauge of CEO confidence and investor willingness to commit capital, particularly whether the market remains willing to pay for "growth, innovation and scale expansion."
Based on reporting by IT之家. Edited and published in English by geisou.
